Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2431 American Flight history →	CLT 07:16	STT 11:03	10%	2%	1.1%	89%
AA 2432 American Flight history →	CLT 09:57	STT 13:48	14%	5%	1.1%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 06:59 → ATL 08:13DL 2275	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 10:35 → STT 14:23DL 1902	7h 24m	100%	81%
American Details →	CLT 05:15 → MIA 07:20AA 1165	2h 47m Miami	MIA 10:07 → STT 12:59AA 2744	7h 44m	100%	78%
United Details →	CLT 07:09 → IAH 08:50UA 575	1h 02m Houston	IAH 09:52 → STT 15:43UA 1908	8h 34m	90%	77%
Delta Details →	CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 11:35 → STT 15:20DL 1889	7h 19m	97%	77%
American Details →	CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180	2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:05 → STT 16:11AA 2943	10h 26m	99%	75%
United Details →	CLT 06:00 → IAD 07:29UA 6279 · flown by Mesa	46m Dulles	IAD 08:15 → STT 12:20UA 1443	6h 20m	83%	74%
American Details →	CLT 07:05 → MIA 09:12AA 770	3h 56m Miami	MIA 13:08 → STT 16:00AA 2738	8h 55m	99%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON