Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3320 at 07:38 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 3320 CLT 07:38 → TPA 09:22 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2022 CLT 20:16 → TPA 21:59 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3320 American Flight history →	CLT 07:38	TPA 09:22	12%	2%	15.5%	93%
AA 2828 American Flight history →	CLT 09:15	TPA 11:04	15%	3%	17.2%	85%
AA 2836 American Flight history →	CLT 11:20	TPA 13:04	17%	4%	17.2%	73%
AA 2832 American Flight history →	CLT 12:54	TPA 14:38	18%	5%	17.2%	75%
AA 2777 American Flight history →	CLT 15:57	TPA 17:41	30%	7%	17.2%	53%
AA 1032 American Flight history →	CLT 18:00	TPA 19:51	32%	8%	17.2%	56%
AA 2022 American Flight history →	CLT 20:16	TPA 21:59	34%	9%	17.2%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON