tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2853 American Flight history → CLT 11:30 TUL 12:59 15% 3% 0.7% 77%
AA 2662 American Flight history → CLT 18:25 TUL 19:58 18% 6% 0.7% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → CLT 06:35 → BNA 07:00WN 1167 1h 10m Nashville BNA 08:10 → TUL 09:45WN 690 4h 10m 96% 90%
DeltaDetails → CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 08:20 → TUL 09:18DL 2754 4h 48m 98% 90%
SouthwestDetails → CLT 07:35 → MDW 08:40WN 3048 1h 20m Chicago MDW 10:00 → TUL 11:50WN 680 5h 15m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:59 → ATL 08:13DL 2275 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 5h 57m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180 3h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:06 → TUL 12:18AA 3829 · flown by Envoy 7h 33m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → CLT 17:00 → IAH 18:58UA 4020 · flown by Mesa 2h 44m Houston IAH 21:42 → TUL 23:15UA 6179 · flown by Mesa 7h 15m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → CLT 09:43 → ATL 11:00DL 3174 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186 7h 10m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:05 → ORD 09:22UA 2771 3h 29m Chicago ORD 12:51 → TUL 15:02UA 6028 · flown by SkyWest 7h 57m 100% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → CLT 21:15 → BNA 21:45WN 1168 55m Nashville BNA 22:40 → TUL 00:20 +1WN 696 4h 05m 69% 52%
AmericanDetails → CLT 16:26 → LGA 18:29AA 1722 1h 00m New York LGA 19:29 → TUL 22:08AA 4341 · flown by Republic 6h 42m 63% 49%
AmericanDetails → CLT 16:50 → PHX 18:14AA 1779 50m Phoenix PHX 19:04 → TUL 23:30AA 4037 · flown by Envoy 7h 40m 62% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON