Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5433 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 09:10	TVC 11:39	17%	4%	0.8%	88%
AA 5628 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 13:05	TVC 15:31	18%	5%	0.7%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CLT 07:00 → EWR 08:59UA 798	1h 37m Newark	EWR 10:36 → TVC 13:00UA 3588 · flown by Republic	6h 00m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	2h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	6h 34m	98%	86%
American Details →	CLT 05:45 → PHL 07:27AA 2727	3h 03m Philadelphia	PHL 10:30 → TVC 12:47AA 5480 · flown by PSA	7h 02m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	CLT 09:40 → BOS 12:06DL 5626 · flown by Republic	2h 00m Boston	BOS 14:06 → TVC 16:39DL 5821 · flown by Republic	6h 59m	97%	82%
American Details →	CLT 07:06 → BOS 09:19AA 1548	51m Boston	BOS 10:10 → TVC 12:41AA 4516 · flown by Republic	5h 35m	91%	81%
American Details →	CLT 09:42 → ORD 11:00AA 1038	2h 55m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → TVC 16:17AA 3772 · flown by Envoy	6h 35m	98%	80%
American Details →	CLT 08:00 → DCA 09:33AA 1977	1h 47m Washington	DCA 11:20 → TVC 13:27AA 4138 · flown by Envoy	5h 27m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	48m Detroit	DTW 08:30 → TVC 09:45DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor	3h 45m	90%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON