Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 16–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2671 CLT 11:21 → VPS 12:02 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 5439 CLT 17:08 → VPS 18:04 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2671 American Flight history →	CLT 11:21	VPS 12:02	16%	6%	0.8%	80%
AA 5190 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 21:05	VPS 21:59	19%	7%	2.8%	56%
AA 2909 American Flight history →	CLT 15:18	VPS 16:01	23%	6%	0.8%	75%
AA 5439 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 17:08	VPS 18:04	23%	7%	2.2%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON