tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1178 Southwest Flight history → CMH 10:50 AUS 12:35 9% 2% 0.6% 85%
DL 4028 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → CMH 13:58 AUS 16:09 18% 6% 0.6% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic 51m Chicago ORD 07:00 → AUS 09:56UA 1336 5h 26m 95% 88%
SouthwestDetails → CMH 05:45 → BWI 07:05WN 4376 1h 00m Baltimore BWI 08:05 → AUS 10:30WN 865 5h 45m 98% 87%
SouthwestDetails → CMH 06:35 → DAL 08:05WN 4324 55m Dallas DAL 09:00 → AUS 10:00WN 4172 4h 25m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → CMH 07:00 → ORD 07:39UA 3429 · flown by Republic 1h 22m Chicago ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688 5h 59m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886 6h 03m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:00AA 4487 · flown by Republic 2h 30m Chicago ORD 08:30 → AUS 11:13AA 2218 6h 43m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:40 → DTW 07:50DL 5701 · flown by Republic 1h 14m Detroit DTW 09:04 → AUS 10:59DL 1218 5h 19m 96% 85%
SouthwestDetails → CMH 05:55 → DEN 07:00WN 1186 3h 00m Denver DEN 10:00 → AUS 13:20WN 2263 8h 25m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → CMH 20:35 → STL 21:00WN 2614 55m St Louis STL 21:55 → AUS 23:55WN 4515 4h 20m 71% 50%
AmericanDetails → CMH 18:19 → MIA 21:02AA 4085 · flown by Envoy 1h 08m Miami MIA 22:10 → AUS 23:59AA 1427 6h 40m 73% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON