Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4642 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 4642 CMH 06:00 → BOS 08:06 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 3470 CMH 15:40 → BOS 17:47 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4642 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 06:00	BOS 08:06	5%	2%	0.7%	95%
DL 5663 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 06:13	BOS 08:20	5%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 5654 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 11:11	BOS 13:15	8%	3%	0.6%	87%
AA 4399 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 11:00	BOS 13:05	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 5653 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 17:40	BOS 19:50	19%	6%	0.7%	68%
AA 3470 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 15:40	BOS 17:47	23%	9%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON