Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3206 CMH 06:09 → CLT 07:39 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 5117 CMH 17:26 → CLT 19:12 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3206 American Flight history →	CMH 06:09	CLT 07:39	7%	3%	0.8%	94%
AA 5144 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CMH 09:14	CLT 10:59	9%	4%	0.7%	93%
AA 3217 American Flight history →	CMH 08:03	CLT 09:40	12%	4%	0.7%	87%
AA 5134 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CMH 15:44	CLT 17:31	13%	5%	0.8%	71%
AA 2395 American Flight history →	CMH 11:10	CLT 12:42	14%	4%	0.7%	88%
AA 5117 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CMH 17:26	CLT 19:12	15%	6%	0.8%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON