Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4324 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4324 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 06:35	DAL 08:05	4%	1%	0.7%	93%
WN 1184 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 15:55	DAL 17:25	23%	5%	0.7%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	CMH 05:45 → BWI 07:05WN 4376	1h 10m Baltimore	BWI 08:15 → DAL 10:25WN 930	5h 40m	99%	91%
Southwest Details →	CMH 07:05 → STL 07:30WN 1207	2h 15m St Louis	STL 09:45 → DAL 11:25WN 4196	5h 20m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	CMH 05:55 → DEN 07:00WN 1186	1h 45m Denver	DEN 08:45 → DAL 11:40WN 1360	6h 45m	99%	90%
Southwest Details →	CMH 06:55 → BNA 07:15WN 4477	50m Nashville	BNA 08:05 → DAL 10:00WN 486	4h 05m	95%	87%
Southwest Details →	CMH 09:00 → MDW 09:10WN 1197	3h 10m Chicago	MDW 12:20 → DAL 14:35WN 2757	6h 35m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	6h 24m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	CMH 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 1479	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	6h 03m	99%	82%
Southwest Details →	CMH 10:00 → BWI 11:20WN 1177	2h 55m Baltimore	BWI 14:15 → DAL 16:15WN 932	7h 15m	96%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	CMH 20:35 → STL 21:00WN 2614	50m St Louis	STL 21:50 → DAL 23:30WN 3904	3h 55m	69%	46%
Southwest Details →	CMH 17:45 → BNA 18:05WN 5058	50m Nashville	BNA 18:55 → DAL 20:50WN 490	4h 05m	66%	44%
Southwest Details →	CMH 16:25 → MCO 18:45WN 4918	50m Orlando	MCO 19:35 → DAL 21:20WN 1419	5h 55m	68%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON