Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5051 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 5051 CMH 06:00 → DCA 07:41 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest WN 1185 CMH 13:45 → DCA 15:00 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5051 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CMH 06:00	DCA 07:41	11%	4%	1.9%	74%
AA 5089 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CMH 09:35	DCA 11:13	15%	6%	1.8%	85%
AA 4405 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 12:10	DCA 13:37	18%	5%	0.7%	62%
AA 4402 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 19:29	DCA 20:59	19%	7%	0.9%	64%
AA 5135 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CMH 16:48	DCA 18:27	24%	9%	2.0%	78%
WN 1185 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 13:45	DCA 15:00	32%	7%	0.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON