Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1186 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1186 CMH 05:55 → DEN 07:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest F9 1693 CMH 16:47 → DEN 18:03 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1186 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 05:55	DEN 07:00	3%	1%	0.5%	97%
UA 728 United Flight history →	CMH 09:00	DEN 10:14	8%	2%	0.6%	86%
WN 779 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 12:15	DEN 13:15	11%	3%	0.5%	88%
UA 1389 United Flight history →	CMH 15:30	DEN 16:45	18%	4%	0.6%	80%
WN 921 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 19:00	DEN 20:10	21%	5%	0.5%	73%
F9 1693 Frontier Flight history →	CMH 16:47	DEN 18:03	23%	7%	0.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON