Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3418 at 05:48 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 3418 CMH 05:48 → DFW 07:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2337 CMH 20:05 → DFW 21:48 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3418 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 05:48	DFW 07:40	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
AA 2380 American Flight history →	CMH 07:13	DFW 09:01	12%	4%	0.8%	89%
AA 1279 American Flight history →	CMH 11:46	DFW 13:25	14%	5%	0.8%	80%
AA 1492 American Flight history →	CMH 14:42	DFW 16:30	17%	6%	0.8%	75%
AA 2337 American Flight history →	CMH 20:05	DFW 21:48	23%	7%	1.0%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON