Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5812 CMH 08:15 → DTW 09:22 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 3739 CMH 10:31 → DTW 11:36 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5812 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 08:15	DTW 09:22	5%	3%	0.6%	95%
DL 5701 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 06:40	DTW 07:50	6%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 5810 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 12:05	DTW 13:16	6%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 5774 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 14:07	DTW 15:20	7%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 3782 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CMH 18:47	DTW 20:02	14%	6%	0.7%	90%
DL 3739 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CMH 10:31	DTW 11:36	14%	8%	0.7%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON