Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 3458 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 3458 CMH 06:40 → EWR 08:33 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 3710 CMH 17:00 → EWR 19:00 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3458 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 06:40	EWR 08:33	5%	1%	1.0%	90%
UA 3416 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 08:19	EWR 10:12	6%	2%	0.9%	86%
UA 3467 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 09:12	EWR 11:05	6%	1%	0.9%	94%
UA 3480 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 11:35	EWR 13:28	7%	2%	0.9%	89%
UA 3596 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 13:15	EWR 15:08	16%	4%	0.9%	77%
UA 3710 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 17:00	EWR 19:00	27%	5%	1.4%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON