tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 426 at 06:05, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 426 Southwest Flight history → CMH 06:05 FLL 08:35 5% 1% 0.8% 96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → CMH 07:05 → STL 07:30WN 1207 2h 25m St Louis STL 09:55 → FLL 13:40WN 4938 6h 35m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic 51m Chicago ORD 07:00 → FLL 11:13UA 1421 5h 43m 95% 85%
SouthwestDetails → CMH 05:45 → BWI 07:05WN 4376 2h 45m Baltimore BWI 09:50 → FLL 12:20WN 4785 6h 35m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:00AA 4487 · flown by Republic 1h 00m Chicago ORD 07:00 → FLL 11:04AA 1851 5h 34m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512 6h 23m 99% 83%
SouthwestDetails → CMH 06:55 → BNA 07:15WN 4477 4h 00m Nashville BNA 11:15 → FLL 14:35WN 4847 7h 40m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:03 → JFK 09:00DL 5656 · flown by Republic 2h 14m New York JFK 11:14 → FLL 14:24DL 305 7h 21m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:05 → ATL 08:42DL 2909 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341 7h 22m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CMH 06:00 → IAD 07:23UA 4428 · flown by GoJet 57m Dulles IAD 08:20 → FLL 11:07UA 1825 5h 07m 70% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON