Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4808 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 4808 CMH 09:10 → JFK 11:11 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 5650 CMH 18:15 → JFK 20:29 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4808 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 09:10	JFK 11:11	6%	2%	0.8%	87%
DL 5656 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 07:03	JFK 09:00	6%	2%	0.8%	90%
DL 5649 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 12:30	JFK 14:35	10%	3%	0.8%	80%
DL 5650 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 18:15	JFK 20:29	18%	5%	0.9%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON