tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 15:30, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 45% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1191 Southwest Flight history → CMH 06:45 LAS 08:00 4% 1% 0.5% 96%
WN 1192 Southwest Flight history → CMH 15:25 LAS 16:45 23% 7% 0.5% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → CMH 07:05 → STL 07:30WN 1207 1h 45m St Louis STL 09:15 → LAS 10:40WN 2327 6h 35m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → CMH 05:55 → DEN 07:00WN 1186 1h 30m Denver DEN 08:30 → LAS 09:25WN 1024 6h 30m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic 1h 02m Chicago ORD 07:11 → LAS 09:19UA 574 6h 49m 97% 89%
SouthwestDetails → CMH 05:45 → BWI 07:05WN 4376 2h 30m Baltimore BWI 09:35 → LAS 11:35WN 974 8h 50m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 8h 00m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:00 → MSP 08:01DL 2403 1h 12m Minneapolis MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262 6h 31m 94% 85%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:40 → DTW 07:50DL 5701 · flown by Republic 1h 09m Detroit DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334 6h 32m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:03 → JFK 09:00DL 5656 · flown by Republic 2h 30m New York JFK 11:30 → LAS 14:01DL 807 9h 58m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CMH 19:31 → SFO 21:37UA 2861 1h 22m San Francisco SFO 22:59 → LAS 00:46 +1UA 2839 8h 15m 74% 51%
SouthwestDetails → CMH 20:35 → STL 21:00WN 2614 55m St Louis STL 21:55 → LAS 23:25WN 3936 5h 50m 71% 50%
AmericanDetails → CMH 18:19 → MIA 21:02AA 4085 · flown by Envoy 48m Miami MIA 21:50 → LAS 23:59AA 3076 8h 40m 45% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON