tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 10:53, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 354 United Flight history → CMH 07:15 LAX 09:06 14% 4% 0.6% 81%
AA 1686 American Flight history → CMH 18:00 LAX 19:44 21% 6% 0.7% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:00 → MSP 08:01DL 2403 3h 29m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 9h 23m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:13 → BOS 08:20DL 5663 · flown by Republic 2h 35m Boston BOS 10:55 → LAX 14:03DL 2004 10h 50m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → CMH 08:15 → DTW 09:22DL 5812 · flown by Republic 3h 28m Detroit DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634 9h 20m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:05 → ATL 08:42DL 2909 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 10h 07m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 11:35 → LAX 13:05DL 326 10h 05m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → CMH 08:05 → PHL 09:45AA 4711 · flown by Republic 3h 37m Philadelphia PHL 13:22 → LAX 16:05AA 2031 11h 00m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → CMH 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 1479 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 9h 17m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:03 → JFK 09:00DL 5656 · flown by Republic 2h 00m New York JFK 11:00 → LAX 13:49DL 767 9h 46m 98% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CMH 06:00 → IAD 07:23UA 4428 · flown by GoJet 52m Dulles IAD 08:15 → LAX 10:47UA 1734 7h 47m 66% 57%
UnitedDetails → CMH 17:01 → IAH 19:04UA 4074 · flown by Mesa 46m Houston IAH 19:50 → LAX 21:26UA 483 7h 25m 64% 50%
SouthwestDetails → CMH 20:35 → STL 21:00WN 2614 55m St Louis STL 21:55 → LAX 23:50WN 2269 6h 15m 71% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON