Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1193 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 1193 CMH 05:10 → MCO 07:20 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest F9 1612 CMH 20:59 → MCO 23:29 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1193 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 05:10	MCO 07:20	2%	1%	0.9%	98%
WN 4918 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 16:25	MCO 18:45	23%	9%	15.6%	62%
WN 4629 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 19:35	MCO 21:50	26%	10%	15.6%	69%
F9 1612 Frontier Flight history →	CMH 20:59	MCO 23:29	29%	13%	18.1%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON