Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3662 at 05:08 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 3662 CMH 05:08 → MIA 07:51 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 4085 CMH 18:19 → MIA 21:02 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3662 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 05:08	MIA 07:51	10%	3%	0.9%	97%
AA 3667 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 07:00	MIA 09:44	12%	4%	1.0%	95%
WN 114 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 13:50	MIA 16:25	35%	10%	1.3%	73%
AA 4085 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 18:19	MIA 21:02	35%	9%	1.3%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON