Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 3524 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 3524 CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 545 CMH 17:55 → ORD 18:34 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3524 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 05:30	ORD 06:09	3%	2%	1.1%	94%
AA 4487 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 05:30	ORD 06:00	4%	2%	1.1%	95%
UA 622 United Flight history →	CMH 11:03	ORD 11:39	8%	4%	1.0%	89%
UA 3429 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 07:00	ORD 07:39	9%	4%	1.1%	88%
AA 4953 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CMH 10:26	ORD 11:05	10%	7%	1.5%	91%
AA 4041 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 06:48	ORD 07:29	12%	4%	1.3%	89%
UA 3484 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 16:20	ORD 17:01	13%	5%	1.2%	85%
UA 466 United Flight history →	CMH 09:00	ORD 09:36	14%	5%	1.0%	81%
AA 4455 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 20:59	ORD 21:45	15%	5%	1.2%	71%
AA 4954 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CMH 14:45	ORD 15:27	16%	8%	1.8%	73%
AA 4950 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CMH 15:48	ORD 16:30	17%	8%	1.6%	82%
AA 3961 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 13:55	ORD 14:29	17%	5%	1.2%	78%
AA 3572 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CMH 08:29	ORD 09:10	17%	5%	1.1%	76%
UA 493 United Flight history →	CMH 14:19	ORD 14:55	19%	6%	1.0%	72%
UA 3444 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 19:54	ORD 20:35	21%	6%	1.1%	82%
UA 545 United Flight history →	CMH 17:55	ORD 18:34	22%	8%	0.9%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON