Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4711 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 4711 CMH 08:05 → PHL 09:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 2397 CMH 18:14 → PHL 19:57 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4711 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CMH 08:05	PHL 09:45	6%	2%	0.7%	88%
AA 2980 American Flight history →	CMH 06:04	PHL 07:40	7%	3%	0.8%	91%
AA 5640 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CMH 10:40	PHL 12:15	12%	5%	1.4%	85%
AA 2905 American Flight history →	CMH 13:01	PHL 14:40	16%	6%	0.7%	81%
AA 5210 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CMH 15:10	PHL 16:46	20%	8%	1.6%	62%
AA 2397 American Flight history →	CMH 18:14	PHL 19:57	20%	8%	0.8%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON