Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 13–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1958 CMH 07:58 → PHX 09:09 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 1202 CMH 15:10 → PHX 16:15 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1958 American Flight history →	CMH 07:58	PHX 09:09	13%	4%	0.8%	88%
AA 1689 American Flight history →	CMH 18:00	PHX 19:09	21%	7%	0.8%	85%
WN 1202 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 15:10	PHX 16:15	21%	6%	0.6%	60%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	CMH 06:55 → BNA 07:15WN 4477	50m Nashville	BNA 08:05 → PHX 09:40WN 3770	5h 45m	95%	86%
Southwest Details →	CMH 12:15 → DEN 13:15WN 779	1h 05m Denver	DEN 14:20 → PHX 15:20WN 1681	6h 05m	89%	67%
Southwest Details →	CMH 19:00 → DEN 20:10WN 921	1h 00m Denver	DEN 21:10 → PHX 22:05WN 1684	6h 05m	79%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON