tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 438 at 06:25, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 438 Southwest Flight history → CMH 06:25 RSW 08:50 8% 2% 15.2% 97%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic 56m Chicago ORD 07:05 → RSW 11:14UA 1740 5h 44m 96% 74%
SouthwestDetails → CMH 07:05 → STL 07:30WN 1207 2h 25m St Louis STL 09:55 → RSW 13:25WN 4940 6h 20m 100% 74%
UnitedDetails → CMH 07:00 → ORD 07:39UA 3429 · flown by Republic 2h 56m Chicago ORD 10:35 → RSW 14:44UA 1102 7h 44m 99% 72%
SouthwestDetails → CMH 05:45 → BWI 07:05WN 4376 1h 15m Baltimore BWI 08:20 → RSW 11:00WN 1082 5h 15m 100% 70%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:00 → MSP 08:01DL 2403 1h 04m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400 6h 27m 93% 70%
AmericanDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:00AA 4487 · flown by Republic 50m Chicago ORD 06:50 → RSW 10:45AA 2433 5h 15m 94% 68%
DeltaDetails → CMH 08:11 → ATL 09:45DL 3165 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196 6h 24m 97% 67%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153 6h 11m 99% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CMH 06:00 → IAD 07:23UA 4428 · flown by GoJet 52m Dulles IAD 08:15 → RSW 10:53UA 1406 4h 53m 66% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON