tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:55, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1314 Southwest Flight history → CMH 12:50 SAN 14:20 29% 6% 0.6% 54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic 2h 37m Chicago ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660 8h 51m 99% 85%
SouthwestDetails → CMH 05:55 → DEN 07:00WN 1186 1h 15m Denver DEN 08:15 → SAN 09:40WN 1699 6h 45m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:00 → MSP 08:01DL 2403 3h 37m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 9h 24m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → CMH 08:15 → DTW 09:22DL 5812 · flown by Republic 3h 08m Detroit DTW 12:30 → SAN 14:09DL 2155 8h 54m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → SAN 11:34DL 712 8h 34m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:05 → ATL 08:42DL 2909 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 03m 98% 82%
SouthwestDetails → CMH 06:55 → BNA 07:15WN 4477 50m Nashville BNA 08:05 → SAN 10:15WN 659 6h 20m 95% 80%
UnitedDetails → CMH 09:00 → ORD 09:36UA 466 3h 24m Chicago ORD 13:00 → SAN 15:25UA 2683 9h 25m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CMH 06:00 → IAD 07:23UA 4428 · flown by GoJet 52m Dulles IAD 08:15 → SAN 10:38UA 1930 7h 38m 66% 55%
UnitedDetails → CMH 19:31 → SFO 21:37UA 2861 1h 05m San Francisco SFO 22:42 → SAN 00:31 +1UA 2142 8h 00m 72% 52%
UnitedDetails → CMH 10:30 → IAD 11:54UA 4056 · flown by Mesa 46m Dulles IAD 12:40 → SAN 15:03UA 2163 7h 33m 61% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON