Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 283 Alaska Flight history →	CMH 07:00	SEA 09:07	20%	3%	0.8%	81%
AS 450 Alaska Flight history →	CMH 18:07	SEA 20:15	30%	6%	0.7%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CMH 07:00 → MSP 08:01DL 2403	3h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	9h 00m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	9h 13m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	CMH 07:05 → ATL 08:42DL 2909	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → SEA 13:35DL 648	9h 30m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	CMH 07:03 → JFK 09:00DL 5656 · flown by Republic	2h 30m New York	JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719	10h 47m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	CMH 06:13 → BOS 08:20DL 5663 · flown by Republic	3h 09m Boston	BOS 11:29 → SEA 14:50DL 332	11h 37m	100%	84%
United Details →	CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic	2h 36m Chicago	ORD 08:45 → SEA 11:38UA 2099	9h 08m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	CMH 08:15 → DTW 09:22DL 5812 · flown by Republic	3h 07m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	9h 14m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	CMH 08:11 → ATL 09:45DL 3165	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	9h 39m	97%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CMH 17:01 → IAH 19:04UA 4074 · flown by Mesa	51m Houston	IAH 19:55 → SEA 22:42UA 2456	8h 41m	71%	50%
United Details →	CMH 19:31 → SFO 21:37UA 2861	1h 22m San Francisco	SFO 22:59 → SEA 01:29 +1UA 5579 · flown by SkyWest	8h 58m	74%	49%
American Details →	CMH 20:05 → DFW 21:48AA 2337	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:41 → SEA 00:57 +1AA 1487	7h 52m	73%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON