tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1597 United Flight history → CMH 07:00 SFO 09:06 18% 6% 0.6% 75%
UA 2861 United Flight history → CMH 19:31 SFO 21:37 29% 12% 0.6% 5%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic 1h 21m Chicago ORD 07:30 → SFO 10:19UA 1116 7h 49m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → CMH 10:30 → IAD 11:54UA 4056 · flown by Mesa 2h 57m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 10h 08m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:00 → MSP 08:01DL 2403 2h 59m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 9h 09m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → CMH 17:01 → IAH 19:04UA 4074 · flown by Mesa 2h 55m Houston IAH 21:59 → SFO 00:05 +1UA 1609 10h 04m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:03 → JFK 09:00DL 5656 · flown by Republic 2h 15m New York JFK 11:15 → SFO 14:33DL 363 10h 30m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → CMH 10:53 → MSP 11:55DL 2772 3h 12m Minneapolis MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756 9h 19m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 50m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693 7h 20m 93% 79%
UnitedDetails → CMH 07:00 → ORD 07:39UA 3429 · flown by Republic 2h 46m Chicago ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543 9h 14m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CMH 09:00 → ORD 09:36UA 466 49m Chicago ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543 7h 14m 73% 58%
UnitedDetails → CMH 10:30 → IAD 11:54UA 4056 · flown by Mesa 46m Dulles IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 7h 57m 61% 50%
AmericanDetails → CMH 15:10 → PHL 16:46AA 5210 · flown by PSA 49m Philadelphia PHL 17:35 → SFO 20:47AA 2663 8h 37m 72% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON