Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1207 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1207 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 07:05	STL 07:30	4%	1%	0.5%	100%
WN 2614 Southwest Flight history →	CMH 20:35	STL 21:00	25%	6%	0.5%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	CMH 05:45 → BWI 07:05WN 4376	2h 30m Baltimore	BWI 09:35 → STL 10:50WN 1110	6h 05m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400	4h 43m	97%	88%
American Details →	CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:00AA 4487 · flown by Republic	1h 04m Chicago	ORD 07:04 → STL 08:31AA 4104 · flown by Envoy	4h 01m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	CMH 08:15 → DTW 09:22DL 5812 · flown by Republic	3h 06m Detroit	DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05DL 1371	5h 50m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	CMH 06:35 → DAL 08:05WN 4324	1h 10m Dallas	DAL 09:15 → STL 11:00WN 1411	5h 25m	98%	87%
United Details →	CMH 06:40 → EWR 08:33UA 3458 · flown by Republic	1h 20m Newark	EWR 09:53 → STL 11:41UA 3630 · flown by Republic	6h 01m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	CMH 06:40 → DTW 07:50DL 5701 · flown by Republic	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 08:50 → STL 09:31DL 2868	3h 51m	94%	87%
Delta Details →	CMH 07:05 → ATL 08:42DL 2909	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566	6h 12m	98%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CMH 15:30 → DEN 16:45UA 1389	49m Denver	DEN 17:34 → STL 20:43UA 1422	6h 13m	74%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON