tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2996 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2996 Southwest Flight history → CMH 07:35 TPA 09:45 9% 2% 15.4% 96%
WN 1217 Southwest Flight history → CMH 19:40 TPA 21:55 31% 11% 15.4% 52%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → CMH 07:05 → STL 07:30WN 1207 2h 35m St Louis STL 10:05 → TPA 13:25WN 3986 6h 20m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:09UA 3524 · flown by Republic 1h 22m Chicago ORD 07:31 → TPA 11:24UA 2326 5h 54m 99% 75%
SouthwestDetails → CMH 05:45 → BWI 07:05WN 4376 1h 25m Baltimore BWI 08:30 → TPA 11:00WN 1120 5h 15m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:00 → ATL 07:35DL 2469 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 08:38 → TPA 10:07DL 1227 4h 07m 95% 71%
UnitedDetails → CMH 07:00 → ORD 07:39UA 3429 · flown by Republic 3h 40m Chicago ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834 8h 12m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → CMH 06:40 → DTW 07:50DL 5701 · flown by Republic 2h 25m Detroit DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587 6h 10m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → CMH 07:00 → MSP 08:01DL 2403 2h 04m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → TPA 14:13DL 2696 7h 13m 97% 71%
AmericanDetails → CMH 05:30 → ORD 06:00AA 4487 · flown by Republic 3h 05m Chicago ORD 09:05 → TPA 12:56AA 2920 7h 26m 100% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CMH 10:30 → IAD 11:54UA 4056 · flown by Mesa 55m Dulles IAD 12:49 → TPA 15:15UA 2277 4h 45m 74% 53%
AmericanDetails → CMH 18:19 → MIA 21:02AA 4085 · flown by Envoy 1h 07m Miami MIA 22:09 → TPA 23:15AA 3188 4h 56m 72% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON