Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1220 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 1220 COS 05:45 → DEN 06:45 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 730 COS 13:30 → DEN 14:24 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1220 Southwest Flight history →	COS 05:45	DEN 06:45	3%	1%	0.6%	96%
UA 5291 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 06:00	DEN 07:05	5%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 4697 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 05:30	DEN 06:35	7%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 4696 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 07:05	DEN 08:10	10%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 5400 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 10:23	DEN 11:38	11%	7%	0.7%	88%
UA 4677 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 07:45	DEN 08:52	11%	4%	0.6%	94%
UA 5634 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 09:20	DEN 10:33	14%	8%	0.7%	85%
UA 4725 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 08:45	DEN 10:02	15%	6%	0.6%	85%
WN 4325 Southwest Flight history →	COS 11:10	DEN 12:05	16%	3%	0.6%	71%
UA 4675 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 11:31	DEN 12:45	17%	9%	0.8%	82%
UA 5391 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 18:32	DEN 19:45	18%	10%	0.8%	72%
UA 4657 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 15:02	DEN 16:15	22%	13%	0.7%	66%
UA 4719 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 17:07	DEN 18:20	23%	10%	0.7%	68%
WN 1222 Southwest Flight history →	COS 16:55	DEN 17:45	24%	8%	0.7%	38%
UA 730 United Flight history →	COS 13:30	DEN 14:24	26%	8%	0.6%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON