Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 6408 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 6408 COS 05:35 → DFW 08:37 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 1695 COS 15:46 → DFW 18:47 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6408 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 05:35	DFW 08:37	9%	5%	0.8%	81%
AA 782 American Flight history →	COS 08:01	DFW 10:56	12%	5%	1.0%	92%
AA 1697 American Flight history →	COS 10:44	DFW 13:36	20%	7%	1.0%	79%
AA 4956 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 17:15	DFW 20:19	20%	10%	1.0%	59%
AA 6390 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 13:22	DFW 16:25	20%	9%	0.9%	80%
AA 1695 American Flight history →	COS 15:46	DFW 18:47	26%	10%	1.1%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON