Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5790 at 05:44 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 5790 COS 05:44 → ORD 09:45 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 4955 COS 12:37 → ORD 16:29 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5790 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 05:44	ORD 09:45	9%	4%	0.8%	91%
UA 1398 United Flight history →	COS 12:11	ORD 15:56	21%	8%	1.0%	78%
AA 4955 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COS 12:37	ORD 16:29	25%	13%	1.0%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON