tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1232 at 12:20, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1232 Southwest Flight history → COS 12:20 SAN 13:35 33% 7% 0.7% 46%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Colorado Springs). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → COS 05:45 → DEN 06:45WN 1220 1h 30m Denver DEN 08:15 → SAN 09:40WN 1699 4h 55m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → COS 05:30 → DEN 06:35UA 4697 · flown by SkyWest 1h 08m Denver DEN 07:43 → SAN 09:05UA 2309 4h 35m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → COS 08:10 → SLC 10:09DL 3940 · flown by SkyWest 1h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 4h 58m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → COS 06:00 → ATL 10:54DL 1074 56m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 8h 08m 93% 77%
SouthwestDetails → COS 06:45 → PHX 07:35WN 4256 1h 40m Phoenix PHX 09:15 → SAN 10:35WN 1677 4h 50m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → COS 07:05 → DEN 08:10UA 4696 · flown by SkyWest 3h 05m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 6h 36m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → COS 18:16 → SLC 20:09DL 4449 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m Salt Lake City SLC 22:55 → SAN 23:49DL 1202 6h 33m 99% 75%
SouthwestDetails → COS 06:10 → LAS 07:05WN 3313 1h 35m Las Vegas LAS 08:40 → SAN 09:55WN 2121 4h 45m 98% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON