Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4006 at 07:20, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4006 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	COU 07:20	CLT 10:25	13%	6%	0.7%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Columbia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	COU 06:20 → ORD 08:01AA 3655 · flown by Envoy	3h 59m Chicago	ORD 12:00 → CLT 15:08AA 2681	7h 48m	98%	79%
American Details →	COU 06:55 → DFW 08:50AA 3525 · flown by Envoy	3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	7h 41m	98%	78%
American Details →	COU 10:32 → ORD 12:04AA 3480 · flown by Envoy	1h 13m Chicago	ORD 13:17 → CLT 16:29AA 3280	4h 57m	91%	77%
United Details →	COU 10:49 → ORD 12:30UA 4605 · flown by GoJet	2h 00m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → CLT 17:59UA 5757 · flown by SkyWest	6h 10m	92%	69%
American Details →	COU 11:45 → DFW 13:38AA 3478 · flown by Envoy	2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:57 → CLT 19:45AA 2407	7h 00m	94%	68%
American Details →	COU 17:19 → DFW 19:14AA 3481 · flown by Envoy	2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:25 → CLT 00:59 +1AA 2409	6h 40m	89%	64%
United Details →	COU 15:25 → ORD 17:05UA 5869 · flown by SkyWest	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 18:15 → CLT 21:29UA 1748	5h 04m	80%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	COU 08:00 → ORD 09:40UA 5609 · flown by SkyWest	46m Chicago	ORD 10:26 → CLT 13:50UA 3450 · flown by Republic	4h 50m	67%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON