Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 5857 at 09:14, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5857 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COU 09:14	DEN 10:35	14%	10%	0.6%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Columbia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	COU 08:00 → ORD 09:40UA 5609 · flown by SkyWest	3h 16m Chicago	ORD 12:56 → DEN 14:46UA 1150	7h 46m	95%	81%
United Details →	COU 10:49 → ORD 12:30UA 4605 · flown by GoJet	3h 42m Chicago	ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769	8h 24m	100%	79%
American Details →	COU 07:20 → CLT 10:25AA 4006 · flown by Envoy	3h 07m Charlotte	CLT 13:32 → DEN 15:03AA 1735	8h 43m	99%	79%
United Details →	COU 15:25 → ORD 17:05UA 5869 · flown by SkyWest	2h 55m Chicago	ORD 20:00 → DEN 22:01UA 767	7h 36m	93%	78%
American Details →	COU 06:20 → ORD 08:01AA 3655 · flown by Envoy	3h 59m Chicago	ORD 12:00 → DEN 13:44AA 1760	8h 24m	98%	76%
American Details →	COU 18:32 → ORD 20:23AA 3479 · flown by Envoy	2h 12m Chicago	ORD 22:35 → DEN 00:17 +1AA 1387	6h 45m	97%	72%
American Details →	COU 10:32 → ORD 12:04AA 3480 · flown by Envoy	3h 11m Chicago	ORD 15:15 → DEN 17:00AA 1734	7h 28m	98%	72%
American Details →	COU 06:55 → DFW 08:50AA 3525 · flown by Envoy	1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:41 → DEN 11:46AA 2359	5h 51m	95%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON