Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3655 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 3655 COU 06:20 → ORD 08:01 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 5869 COU 15:25 → ORD 17:05 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3655 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	COU 06:20	ORD 08:01	9%	5%	1.4%	87%
AA 3480 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	COU 10:32	ORD 12:04	15%	7%	1.3%	82%
UA 5609 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COU 08:00	ORD 09:40	19%	12%	1.1%	76%
AA 3479 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	COU 18:32	ORD 20:23	21%	10%	1.6%	71%
UA 5869 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	COU 15:25	ORD 17:05	24%	16%	1.6%	68%
UA 4605 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	COU 10:49	ORD 12:30	11%	8%	2.7%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON