Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2441 at 05:34 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–12%.

Safest bet that day DL 2441 CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 1846 CVG 12:53 → ATL 14:33 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2441 Delta Flight history →	CVG 05:34	ATL 07:02	4%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 963 Delta Flight history →	CVG 10:05	ATL 11:35	5%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 3076 Delta Flight history →	CVG 08:15	ATL 09:45	7%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 2302 Delta Flight history →	CVG 07:09	ATL 08:41	8%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 2199 Delta Flight history →	CVG 20:03	ATL 21:49	10%	3%	0.7%	74%
DL 3149 Delta Flight history →	CVG 13:29	ATL 15:04	10%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 1140 Delta Flight history →	CVG 14:32	ATL 16:05	12%	3%	0.6%	64%
DL 1008 Delta Flight history →	CVG 17:48	ATL 19:30	12%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 3169 Delta Flight history →	CVG 16:16	ATL 17:51	12%	3%	0.6%	69%
F9 1846 Frontier Flight history →	CVG 12:53	ATL 14:33	21%	7%	0.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON