tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3349 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3349 Southwest Flight history → CVG 07:00 BNA 07:10 5% 2% 0.6% 96%
WN 3624 Southwest Flight history → CVG 18:55 BNA 19:05 22% 6% 0.6% 52%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 1h 29m Atlanta ATL 08:31 → BNA 08:41DL 3069 4h 07m 99% 92%
SouthwestDetails → CVG 05:30 → BWI 07:00WN 1246 2h 45m Baltimore BWI 09:45 → BNA 10:35WN 487 6h 05m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 21m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → CVG 09:08 → ORD 09:45UA 3497 · flown by Republic 2h 44m Chicago ORD 12:29 → BNA 14:14UA 3634 · flown by Republic 6h 06m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752 3h 03m Chicago ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414 6h 29m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → CVG 08:00 → MDW 08:05WN 3016 3h 15m Chicago MDW 11:20 → BNA 12:45WN 2733 5h 45m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → CVG 06:00 → IAD 07:34UA 3489 · flown by Republic 56m Dulles IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29UA 1366 4h 29m 94% 86%
UnitedDetails → CVG 06:00 → EWR 08:07UA 3423 · flown by Republic 2h 48m Newark EWR 10:55 → BNA 12:18UA 1616 7h 18m 100% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CVG 11:12 → DCA 12:59AA 5145 · flown by PSA 55m Washington DCA 13:54 → BNA 14:59AA 3991 · flown by Envoy 4h 47m 71% 56%
DeltaDetails → CVG 12:35 → DCA 14:07DL 5221 · flown by Endeavor 1h 03m Washington DCA 15:10 → BNA 16:15DL 5777 · flown by Republic 4h 40m 65% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON