Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1246 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1246 Southwest Flight history →	CVG 05:30	BWI 07:00	4%	1%	0.6%	89%
WN 1247 Southwest Flight history →	CVG 15:50	BWI 17:15	18%	5%	0.6%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → BWI 10:47DL 801	5h 13m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:00 → BOS 08:22DL 5790 · flown by Republic	2h 48m Boston	BOS 11:10 → BWI 12:53DL 5668 · flown by Republic	6h 53m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711	5h 52m	99%	89%
United Details →	CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752	3h 17m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653	6h 57m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor	2h 39m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546	5h 28m	98%	87%
Southwest Details →	CVG 08:00 → MDW 08:05WN 3016	3h 50m Chicago	MDW 11:55 → BWI 14:45WN 2744	6h 45m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	CVG 11:52 → BOS 14:09DL 5601 · flown by Republic	1h 41m Boston	BOS 15:50 → BWI 17:42DL 5644 · flown by Republic	5h 50m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	CVG 14:47 → BOS 17:10DL 5598 · flown by Republic	3h 25m Boston	BOS 20:35 → BWI 22:29DL 5851 · flown by Republic	7h 42m	99%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CVG 19:54 → ORD 20:34UA 4177 · flown by GoJet	46m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → BWI 00:28 +1UA 675	4h 34m	64%	47%
Southwest Details →	CVG 08:00 → MDW 08:05WN 3016	50m Chicago	MDW 08:55 → BWI 11:45WN 1355	3h 45m	9%	8%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON