Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 429 at 05:08 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 429 CVG 05:08 → CLT 06:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2911 CVG 17:29 → CLT 19:07 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 429 American Flight history →	CVG 05:08	CLT 06:35	8%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 2492 American Flight history →	CVG 09:12	CLT 10:48	13%	4%	0.7%	95%
AA 2967 American Flight history →	CVG 07:41	CLT 09:16	14%	4%	0.8%	91%
AA 5202 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CVG 13:48	CLT 15:34	19%	4%	0.8%	80%
AA 2911 American Flight history →	CVG 17:29	CLT 19:07	24%	6%	0.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON