Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3157 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28%.

Safest bet that day AA 3157 CVG 06:00 → DFW 07:32 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest F9 1757 CVG 19:52 → DFW 21:32 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3157 American Flight history →	CVG 06:00	DFW 07:32	10%	3%	0.9%	79%
AA 1713 American Flight history →	CVG 11:19	DFW 12:45	17%	4%	0.8%	83%
AA 3307 American Flight history →	CVG 13:58	DFW 15:28	22%	6%	0.8%	56%
AA 1728 American Flight history →	CVG 20:01	DFW 21:30	28%	6%	1.2%	41%
F9 1757 Frontier Flight history →	CVG 19:52	DFW 21:32	28%	9%	0.9%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON