Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2776 at 07:44 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 2776 CVG 07:44 → FLL 10:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest F9 1047 CVG 14:10 → FLL 16:46 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2776 Delta Flight history →	CVG 07:44	FLL 10:15	11%	3%	0.9%	79%
G4 388 Allegiant Flight history →	CVG 06:30	FLL 08:59	20%	5%	1.1%	91%worse than usual
DL 661 Delta Flight history →	CVG 15:53	FLL 18:27	23%	7%	1.2%	78%
F9 1047 Frontier Flight history →	CVG 14:10	FLL 16:46	33%	13%	2.0%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON