Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3489 CVG 06:00 → IAD 07:34 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 3493 CVG 10:18 → IAD 11:52 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3489 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 06:00	IAD 07:34	6%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 3493 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 10:18	IAD 11:52	9%	3%	0.6%	81%
UA 4018 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 14:55	IAD 16:34	13%	4%	1.9%	87%
UA 4422 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 19:45	IAD 21:25	14%	8%	3.8%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON