tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Midway, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 44% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2915 Delta Flight history → CVG 07:16 LAS 08:16 9% 2% 0.6% 83%
F9 3521 Frontier Flight history → CVG 21:30 LAS 22:44 28% 9% 1.2% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752 2h 08m Minneapolis MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262 7h 22m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 1h 23m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → LAS 09:31DL 777 6h 57m 99% 89%
SouthwestDetails → CVG 05:30 → BWI 07:00WN 1246 2h 35m Baltimore BWI 09:35 → LAS 11:35WN 974 9h 05m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → CVG 06:35 → IAH 08:11UA 2442 3h 44m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 9h 38m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 6h 51m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752 3h 26m Chicago ORD 11:00 → LAS 13:05UA 2440 9h 05m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor 1h 23m Detroit DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334 6h 53m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → CVG 08:00 → DEN 09:02UA 1666 2h 20m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 7h 24m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CVG 18:12 → ORD 18:50UA 1813 1h 00m Chicago ORD 19:50 → LAS 21:59UA 2242 6h 47m 74% 53%
DeltaDetails → CVG 18:29 → DTW 19:50DL 5071 · flown by Endeavor 53m Detroit DTW 20:43 → LAS 21:58DL 916 6h 29m 70% 50%
AmericanDetails → CVG 18:25 → MIA 21:04AA 3487 · flown by Envoy 46m Miami MIA 21:50 → LAS 23:59AA 3076 8h 34m 44% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON