Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 511 at 08:26 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 511 CVG 08:26 → MCO 10:30 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest WN 760 CVG 17:30 → MCO 19:45 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 511 Delta Flight history →	CVG 08:26	MCO 10:30	9%	3%	15.6%	87%
F9 3624 Frontier Flight history →	CVG 07:15	MCO 09:32	13%	7%	12.0%	91%
DL 2824 Delta Flight history →	CVG 15:58	MCO 18:23	21%	9%	17.3%	75%
F9 1750 Frontier Flight history →	CVG 21:30	MCO 23:51	24%	11%	17.1%	77%
WN 760 Southwest Flight history →	CVG 17:30	MCO 19:45	25%	8%	17.3%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON