Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3016 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3016 Southwest Flight history →	CVG 08:00	MDW 08:05	9%	2%	0.6%	98%
WN 1251 Southwest Flight history →	CVG 20:25	MDW 20:35	23%	5%	0.6%	47%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	CVG 07:00 → BNA 07:10WN 3349	3h 35m Nashville	BNA 10:45 → MDW 12:20WN 575	6h 20m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	CVG 05:30 → BWI 07:00WN 1246	2h 35m Baltimore	BWI 09:35 → MDW 10:35WN 4217	6h 05m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	7h 22m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	CVG 10:05 → ATL 11:35DL 963	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	7h 10m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	CVG 16:16 → ATL 17:51DL 3169	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	6h 59m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	CVG 08:14 → DTW 09:31DL 5479 · flown by Endeavor	2h 54m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	5h 32m	97%	78%
Southwest Details →	CVG 18:55 → BNA 19:05WN 3624	3h 30m Nashville	BNA 22:35 → MDW 00:10 +1WN 578	6h 15m	100%	75%
Southwest Details →	CVG 15:50 → BWI 17:15WN 1247	1h 45m Baltimore	BWI 19:00 → MDW 20:05WN 1005	5h 15m	94%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CVG 16:00 → DTW 17:17DL 5456 · flown by Endeavor	50m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	3h 29m	61%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON