Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3638 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3638 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 06:30	MIA 09:08	13%	3%	1.0%	88%
AA 3487 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 18:25	MIA 21:04	34%	10%	1.6%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 23m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752	1h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 08:55 → MIA 13:37DL 2129	7h 28m	98%	84%
United Details →	CVG 06:00 → IAD 07:34UA 3489 · flown by Republic	1h 11m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073	5h 35m	94%	82%
Delta Details →	CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor	1h 46m Detroit	DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468	6h 09m	98%	81%
Southwest Details →	CVG 05:30 → BWI 07:00WN 1246	1h 20m Baltimore	BWI 08:20 → MIA 11:00WN 3278	5h 30m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 53m	99%	79%
American Details →	CVG 05:08 → CLT 06:35AA 429	2h 50m Charlotte	CLT 09:25 → MIA 11:37AA 1436	6h 29m	97%	78%
American Details →	CVG 05:44 → PHL 07:34AA 5438 · flown by PSA	2h 26m Philadelphia	PHL 10:00 → MIA 12:59AA 796	7h 15m	97%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON