tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, G4 430 at 13:40, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
G4 430 Allegiant Flight history → CVG 13:40 MYR 15:12 17% 8% 1.4% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → CVG 05:30 → BWI 07:00WN 1246 1h 20m Baltimore BWI 08:20 → MYR 09:55WN 2997 4h 25m 99% 93%
AmericanDetails → CVG 07:41 → CLT 09:16AA 2967 2h 04m Charlotte CLT 11:20 → MYR 12:36AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont 4h 55m 100% 92%
SouthwestDetails → CVG 07:00 → BNA 07:10WN 3349 3h 50m Nashville BNA 11:00 → MYR 13:25WN 2412 6h 25m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182 5h 51m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → CVG 06:00 → ORD 06:32AA 4094 · flown by Envoy 2h 28m Chicago ORD 09:00 → MYR 12:22AA 3733 · flown by Envoy 6h 22m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 09:30 → MYR 10:47DL 3047 5h 13m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → CVG 07:00 → ORD 07:34UA 2752 3h 26m Chicago ORD 11:00 → MYR 14:19UA 1332 7h 19m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:19 → DTW 07:36DL 5307 · flown by Endeavor 1h 09m Detroit DTW 08:45 → MYR 10:39DL 1145 4h 20m 94% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON