Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4094 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 4094 CVG 06:00 → ORD 06:32 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest UA 1813 CVG 18:12 → ORD 18:50 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4094 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 06:00	ORD 06:32	10%	4%	1.1%	82%
UA 3485 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 11:17	ORD 11:53	10%	4%	1.1%	85%
UA 3497 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 09:08	ORD 09:45	12%	4%	1.0%	76%
UA 2752 United Flight history →	CVG 07:00	ORD 07:34	13%	3%	1.1%	91%
AA 3489 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 10:05	ORD 10:37	13%	5%	1.1%	86%
AA 4412 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 14:15	ORD 14:52	14%	6%	1.2%	81%
AA 3488 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 12:04	ORD 12:36	15%	5%	1.1%	91%
AA 4720 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CVG 15:00	ORD 15:37	15%	6%	1.2%	72%
AA 3894 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CVG 08:58	ORD 09:35	19%	5%	1.0%	74%
AA 6230 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CVG 19:07	ORD 19:59	19%	10%	1.7%	61%
OO 6261 SkyWest	CVG 13:11	ORD 13:52	21%	8%	1.4%	no record
UA 4746 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CVG 13:56	ORD 14:29	25%	9%	1.6%	56%
UA 1813 United Flight history →	CVG 18:12	ORD 18:50	26%	8%	0.9%	47%
UA 4177 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 19:54	ORD 20:34	22%	0%	12.9%	78%
UA 4171 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 16:12	ORD 16:52	23%	14%	5.4%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON