tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Nashville, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1725 American Flight history → CVG 18:37 PHX 19:42 20% 6% 0.8% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Hebron). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CVG 06:09 → MSP 07:05DL 2752 2h 23m Minneapolis MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208 7h 34m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → CVG 05:34 → ATL 07:02DL 2441 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348 6h 27m 97% 87%
AmericanDetails → CVG 05:44 → PHL 07:34AA 5438 · flown by PSA 3h 31m Philadelphia PHL 11:05 → PHX 13:09AA 646 10h 25m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:12 → SLC 08:55DL 2876 2h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431 8h 00m 98% 84%
SouthwestDetails → CVG 07:00 → BNA 07:10WN 3349 55m Nashville BNA 08:05 → PHX 09:40WN 3770 5h 40m 92% 84%
AmericanDetails → CVG 06:00 → JFK 08:11AA 4657 · flown by Republic 1h 05m New York JFK 09:16 → PHX 11:36AA 1769 8h 36m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → CVG 07:09 → ATL 08:41DL 2302 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 7h 54m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → CVG 06:00 → EWR 08:07UA 3423 · flown by Republic 3h 17m Newark EWR 11:24 → PHX 13:39UA 370 10h 39m 100% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → CVG 12:55 → AUS 14:30WN 483 55m Austin AUS 15:25 → PHX 15:50WN 376 5h 55m 67% 47%
FrontierDetails → CVG 19:52 → DFW 21:32F9 1757 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:23 → PHX 22:59F9 4655 6h 07m 67% 42%
AlaskaDetails → CVG 17:07 → SEA 19:07AS 508 48m Seattle SEA 19:55 → PHX 22:53AS 632 8h 46m 62% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON